For those of you who don’t know (and it’s ok if you don’t), New York State’s 48th Senate District held a special election two days ago. Such was the significance of this election that I just now remembered it was taking place. Actually, it is a big deal and it says something important about the social and political demographics of the North Country and even more significantly, how what was seen as an inevitable win went terribly wrong for Republican Assemblyman Barclay due to his horribly mismanaged campaign and allowed for his Democratic opponent, Assemblyman Darrel Aubertine to slip in a narrow 52%-48% victory.
First, a Civics lesson. In the United States, the governments of the individual states operate for the most part as microcosms of the federal government. Power is split between the executive (President/Governor), legislative (State Legislature/Congress), and judicial (Supreme Court/State Supreme Court) branches. In New York, the State Legislature is split between a Senate and an Assembly, not at all dissimilar to the United States Senate and House of Representatives, respectively. Demographically, if New York were to be divided into halves, it would be split between the largely urban liberal Democratic downstate and the more rural conservative Republican upstate. The small area between Dutchess and Suffolk Counties comprises about 60% of the state’s population, most of whom live in Yonkers, New York City, and Long Island. I come from Jefferson County which is a stone’s throw from the Canadian border on the eastern bank of Lake Ontario. To understand where the 48th Senate District is, you should take a highlighter and draw a thick line from Ogdensburg down to Fulton. Everything that is yellow is part of the “Fightin’ 48th”.
Our last State Senator, Jim Wright (R-Watertown), has held his seat uninterrupted for fifteen years. According to AP, the seat has been held by a Republican for over a century, maintaining the fragile control that the Republicans have had over the State Senate since the 1960’s. Barclay’s loss means that the Republicans hold a 32-30 majority in the Senate, while the Democrats maintain their 106-42 (out of 150) super-majority in the Assembly and control over the Governor’s mansion. Governor Elliot Spitzer and the New York State Legislature rose briefly to the attention of the national media (and by that I mean Lou Dobbs) when they began issuing driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. Barclay’s firm opposition to Spitzer’s decision was praised by his fiscally conservative, libertarian leaning electorate. Given that Barclay and Aubertine were nearly identical on all of the issues (low taxes, more jobs, better schools) this and the mere fact that his name is followed by an “R” (Republican, for my Canadian friends) should have made him a shoe-in with the largely Republican North Country voting bloc. This was not so, however.
My conversations with voters in the 48th Senate District reveals that they were mostly turned off to the prospective of electing Barclay due to his choice of campaign tactics. From the very beginning, Barclay was running attack ads against Mr. Aubertine despite the endorsements of State Sen. Wright and United States Congressman John McHugh (R-Pierrepont Manor). In American politics, there are three rules that one should always adhere to, the second of which Barclay should take a lesson from:
1. Do not call your opponent a liar.
2. Do not attack your opponent if you are the front-runner.
3. Do not say anything bad about John McCain or Barack Obama (Goodbye Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton).
I did not vote in this election. The entire time I was home my absentee ballot application sat on my desk. I was torn between my frustration with Assemblyman Barclay and my desire to maintain the balance of power in Albany. I’ll admit though, when I read the results my first emotion was a positive one, so maybe Aubertine’s victory was what I wanted. Whatever.
Anyways, what we should learn from the lessons of this election is that the very nature of a campaign can have a huge impact on the results. Aubertine will no doubt be challenged in the future so he should take advantage of these next few years to build up his own name, all the while not being afraid to stick one to Albany and the downstate machine in the name of dairy farmers, steelworkers, and squirrel-eaters district wide.
-optionaltoaster
One of Mr. Barclay’s early attack ads:
Nice blog Ian! I have been a fan of Aubertine since I was asked to help with his campaign at the end of winter break. The comparison between his campaign adds, which were pleasant, well-produced, dignified (this coming from a “squirrel-eater”), and professional and Barclay’s, which were all about things Aubertine had allegedly either lied about or failed to deliver (except for one early season spot which was painful to watch it was so artificially posed) was startling. I can hardly wait to get home and gently rub the Dem’s victory in a couple of people’s faces!
Thanks Lauren! The squirrel-eater bit was a reference to a comment made by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee a few months ago when he associated rural people with unusual nutritional habits, namely eating squirrels.
You’re spot on about the ads. Voters don’t like to hear politicians characterize their opponents positions for them, especially when they are being misleading.
Im actually glad you brought this up. I too was struggling with my decision in the last couple of days, largely because of a Feminist attack add on Barclay, in which I discovered that Aubertine was pro-life, Barclay pro-choice. This is one of my more heartfelt issues, and I think it was that final ad, with the swing votes it caused me an my evangelical friends, that led to Aubertine’s victory. Ironically enough, my first vote cast was for a Democrat. Nice blog entry, enjoyed reading it.
I wish that I had been paying closer attention to their positions on the issues, but that certainly wasn’t the nature of the campaign being waged. I’m actually pretty surprised to find out that Barclay was pro-choice, though to be honest the whole abortion issue is something of a non-starter for me.